August was a rollercoaster month for investors, with the global stock market experiencing significant volatility. Read on to find out what may have affected your investments.
Many market indices saw sharp falls early in August sparked by fears that the US is on track for a recession. However, investors are likely to have experienced some recovery in the weeks that followed.
On 16 August, global stock markets boasted the best week of 2024 – the MSCI main index of world stocks was up 3.5% over the week.
UK
There was positive news from the Office for National Statistics, which reported the UK economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024. The figure lent further weight to claims that the UK is leaving the shallow recession at the end of 2023 behind.
However, the data showed that GDP per head is 0.1% lower in real terms than it was in the second quarter of 2023. This measure is often used as a broad barometer for living standards and economic wellbeing.
Despite this, the UK is set to be the third-fastest growing economy in the G7, behind only Japan and the US.
The Bank of England (BoE) also had an optimistic outlook. The Bank more than doubled its growth forecast for 2024 to 1.25%. It also decided at the start of August to cut the base interest rate for the first time since the pandemic to 5%.
Official data shows inflation increased to 2.2% in the 12 months to July 2024. It’s the first time inflation has increased since December 2023, but it wasn’t as sharp as some economists were expecting.
With chancellor Rachel Reeves set to deliver her first Budget on 30 October 2024, news that public borrowing soared could place pressure on her plans.
Public borrowing hit £3.1 billion in July 2024 – £1.8 billion more than in July 2023. Worryingly, the Office for Budget Responsibility previously estimated the government would only need to borrow £100 million. The news led to speculation that taxes will be hiked and spending plans cut to plug the black hole.
Like many other markets, the UK experienced volatility at the start of August. On 5 August, the FTSE 100 – an index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange – fell by 2%. It did start to recover the following day with a modest 0.23% rise.
There was good news for Rolls-Royce shareholders this month. The company announced it would pay dividends for the first time since the pandemic, as underlying profit is expected to be higher than previously estimated thanks to a turnaround plan. The announcement led to shares rising by almost 10%.
Interestingly, the High Pay Centre found that FTSE 100 chief executive pay reached a record high. The median pay in 2023 was £4.19 million. For the second year, AstraZeneca chief executive Pascal Soriot topped the list with pay of £16.85 million.
Europe
The S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the eurozone indicates the bloc is growing. However, Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, the chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, warned it was at a “snail’s pace”.
Rubia also noted that the eurozone has benefited from several large events so far this year, including the European Football Championship in Germany, the Paris Olympics, and Taylor Swift concerts. So, a slowdown could be experienced in the coming months.
Eurostat data shows unemployment increased to 6.5% in June 2024. Rising unemployment could signal that businesses aren’t confident about the future.
Similar to the UK, European stock markets experienced volatility early in August. The Stoxx Europe 600 index tumbled 2.2% on 5 August but moved back into the red the following day.
US
US job data sparked market volatility when figures from the Bureau of Labor showed unemployment increased to 4.3% in July 2023 and only 114,000 new jobs were created – far fewer than the 175,000 economists had anticipated. Coupled with poor earnings from some key technology businesses, stock markets fell.
On 2 August, technology-focused index Nasdaq fell by around 10% from its peak amid concerns that the US may enter a recession by the end of this year. Indeed, JP Morgan believes there’s a 1 in 3 chance the US will fall into a recession in 2024.
When markets reopened on 5 August, they sunk deeper into the red, with the Dow Jones falling by 2.8%, the S&P 500 tumbling by 4.2%, and the Nasdaq declining by 6.2%.
When Wall Street started to rally on 7 August, it was technology stocks that led the way. Salesforce saw its stocks rise by 3%, while Amazon (2.5%), Apple (2.27%) and Microsoft (2.2%) all gained too. The rally wasn’t universal though – Airbnb’s shares dropped by 14% as demand fell in the US and it missed profit expectations for the second quarter of 2024.
While gains were made, the Guardian reported that an estimated $6.4 trillion (£4.88 trillion) was erased from global stock markets in the three weeks to 7 August. Goldman Sachs also warned that the stock market correction hadn’t gone far enough.
There was some good news when PMI data indicated the service sector had increased “markedly” in July 2024, which could ease some concerns about an impending recession.
Asia
US recession fears were felt around the world.
Japan’s Nikkei index fell by 5.8% on 2 August and then suffered its worst day since 1987 on 5 August when it closed more than 12% down, while the broader Topix index experienced a similar fall. The indices bounced back, with the Nikkei’s value rising by more than 10% a day later.
Please note:
This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.
